SARS – CoV-2/CoViD-19
Today Tuesday March 10, 2020
Infected Cases 118,905 Deaths 4.270
Right off the bat this is not the Flu and not SARS 2002-2003. This is a Novel Corona Virus, a brand new virus and no person has immunity to it! I want to look at 3 specific numbers 80% - 15% - 5%. The first number 80% is the number that the majority of people infected will get a mild case and get better. 15% will get very ill and most likely need some form of hospital care and 5% will need intensive care hospitalization and without it will most probably die. Now we also know that 20% can be asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic and will not know they have the CoViD -19 Virus and be spreading it around becoming super-spreaders.
From the first known infected case in Wuhan, China on December 8, 2019, it has now spread globally to 105 countries. In countries like South Korea, Iran and especially Italy the numbers have been rising at an alarming and worrisome rate. Using China as the initial model the world has learned a great deal about the epidemiology of the growing virus. We obviously know that China was very slow in its initial reactivity to stemming the spread of the virus. It took them a month to take draconian and radical measures that they eventually did with great due diligence and speed throughout the entire country especially in Hubei Province, population of 60 million. But many major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and many others provinces were put under strict quarantine measures. With that said the rest of the world had two months to prepare for the eventuality of it spreading across the globe. We were warned and looking at some very advanced countries like the USA and UK as two examples did not prepare properly if at all. Instead they were reactive not proactive.
South Korea has been testing 10,000 people every day more than 200,000 so far. China has tested millions. The U.S has tested a few thousand with most medical centers and hospitals not being able to get the proper test kits. In response to the alarming numbers in Italy the country as of yesterday went into complete lockdown of its entire population of 60 million. The biggest worry that most people don’t take into consideration is the health care system being overwhelmed that has happened in Italy. Doctors are now having to choose who gets intensive care and who won’t, like in war-time. They are trying to save who they believe has more chances to survive meaning the younger in age group. With the over congestion of the ER and hospitals they cannot handle the caseloads increasing every day. When you’re told to self-isolate and quarantine yourself for 14 days that’s exactly what it means. The virus is very infectious and you need to stay home, your vacation can wait, your wedding can be postponed, it’s not worth the risk.
I wrote more than 6 weeks ago that if what we don’t prepare with speed, and the numbers of infected start to spread across borders and eventually here in the U.S the system like in any other country will start to deteriorate and if towns, cities or counties become lock downed and quarantined like in China and now Italy, our pampered culture will not handle it well and the thought of being even slightly inconvenienced will lead to a breakdown in the very fabric of society. The only way to implement radical measures is ordering the National Guard to control the ordered quarantines. I was told from some people I was spreading fear and being an alarmist. Well I hate to tell you I told you so. Today in New Rochelle, NY Gov. Cuomo deploys the National Guard to establish a containment center to stem the coronavirus. This is going to become the new norm all throughout the country within the next few months.
My nephew just flew back from the Marshall Islands via Guam via Honolulu via Newark via Charleston to Fort Lauderdale. He told me until he arrived Stateside everyone was wearing a mask. No one was wearing a mask on his internal U.S flights. The flight I just took a few days ago, 10 people including Charlotte and me were wearing a mask. Though everyone else were wearing the regular surgical masks (which are not very effective but at least it’s better than nothing) and not the N95 or N99 masks. But people also need to be wearing goggles as we know that this virus is spread through not only droplets but aerosol. If someone sneezes or coughs within a range of 4.5 meters it can come also though the eyes as well as the nose and mouth. People are not taking this seriously and typical of Western culture with the usual laissez-faire attitudes thinking they’re impervious to the virus. But it’s the fact of not being respectful and caring of your fellow passengers and human beings. This is a global pandemic everyone needs to be wearing a mask and going back to the above numbers, 20% are asymptomatic carrying around the virus and not knowing they’re spreading it around.
In the U.S as of today there are 787 cases? Really? The U.S administration is still in complete denial and are losing all credibility and it’s completely lamentable at this point. Cedars-Sinai Medical Center (March 9) conducted a very specific number of tests getting credible information and data from China and had said on March 1, 2020 between 1,043 and 9,484 people are infected in the U.S with CoViD-19. This is over a week ago so the numbers by now are probably double. When we presently look at China’s numbers they have fallen drastically to a few dozen cases and South Korea’s numbers also have fallen a lot. But it’s because they have taken drastic measures to contain and delay the spread of the virus. The entire country of Italy is quarantined and yet the U.S and U.K have still been allowing flights to arrive from Italy and no one is being screened and quarantined. This is absolutely outrageous and sadly we are going to pay a hefty price for our shameless lack of taking proactive measures to ensure the safety of its citizens.
I don’t wish any bad and certainly not this virus on anybody but maybe what this country needs is to be put in a dire situation like what Italy is now experiencing. Only then will the people and certainly the administration wake the hell up! It’s on the doorstep and yet we are still in denial and being reactive not taking the necessary measures that need to be put in place. My prediction is we are heading that way and within 2 months the U.S will be in the same dire crisis that Italy is in. The administration will have to make some very difficult and dire decisions. I hope I’m wrong and pray that it just magically disappears like many people are saying. Well sorry to disappoint you, but you must be living on another planet. For the rest please take care of yourself and family and stay healthy. Hope for the best and plan for the worst! Always be a hard target.
This is a Global crisis and we all need to come together and help each other.
Healthcare must be: Of the people, by the people, for the people.