I was recently invited as Deputy Ambassador to an International Affairs Think Tank group. The big question on everyone’s mind was if I thought the USA and China would be at war within the next two years?
Many of my colleagues believe that US-China relations are entering a very dangerous period and there’s a very good chance this might come to pass. My analysis of the current geopolitical situation between the United States and China and the factors that may contribute to the possibility of a war between the two countries.
China’s military power has been increasing rapidly in recent years, with significant investments in military modernization and expansion of its military capabilities. China has the largest standing army in the world and has been investing heavily in new technologies such as advanced fighter jets, ballistic missiles, and aircraft carriers. In addition, China has been increasing its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, which has raised concerns among neighboring countries and the United States. However, it is important to note that military power is not the only factor in determining a country’s global influence. Soft power, including cultural, economic, and diplomatic influence, also plays a significant role in shaping international relations.
The relationship between the United States and China has been a topic of concern for many years, with tensions between the two nations increasing in recent years. The two countries have been engaged in an ongoing trade war since 2018, with both sides imposing tariffs on each other’s goods, causing economic strain for both nations. Additionally, there are tensions over issues such as intellectual property theft, human rights abuses in China, and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
One of the major factors contributing to the possibility of a war between the United States and China is the increasing competition between the two nations for global power and influence. China has been rapidly growing its economy and military power, challenging the United States’ position as the dominant global superpower. As a result, the United States has been taking measures to counter China’s rise, such as forming alliances with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region and increasing military spending.
Another factor is the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in China and spread globally. The pandemic has caused significant economic and social disruptions, with both countries blaming each other for the origin and spread of the virus. This has further strained relations between the United States and China and increased distrust between the two nations.
However, it is important to note that a war between the United States and China would have catastrophic consequences for both countries and the world as a whole. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, and a military conflict between the two could result in a global catastrophe. Additionally, both countries have significant economic interdependence, with China being the United States’ largest trading partner, and any conflict would severely disrupt global trade and supply chains.
Furthermore, both countries have demonstrated a willingness to engage in diplomatic efforts to resolve their differences. For example, the two nations recently signed a trade deal, indicating a willingness to work together on economic issues. Additionally, the two countries have engaged in talks over issues such as climate change, suggesting a willingness to cooperate on global issues. In conclusion, while tensions between the United States and China remain high, it is difficult to predict whether a war between the two nations will occur in the next two years. Both countries have demonstrated a willingness to engage in diplomatic efforts to resolve their differences, and a military conflict between the two would have catastrophic consequences. However, the increasing competition between the two nations for global power and influence and the recent COVID-19 pandemic have created an uncertain and potentially volatile geopolitical situation.
Vincent Lyn CEO & Founder of We Can Save Children Deputy Ambassador of International Human Rights Commission (IHRC) Director of Creative Development at African Views Organization Economic & Social Council at United Nations (ECOSOC) Editor-in-Chief at Wall Street News Agency